The pros over at 'science of sport' discuss the possibility of a new world record in London. We hate to dampen the excitement but we are just as sceptical as they are.
And here is why:
"Last year, the marked drop in pace occurred between 30 and 35km. Up to 30km, they were on world record pace (2:04:27, which was the WR at the time), and then the impetus was lost.What does that have to do with this year's race? Well, I suspect the same may happen. There has been much talk about the world record, because Sammy Wanjiru, Martin Lel and Tadese are all ear-marked as having the potential to break it.
The biggest barrier is the fact that they'll be racing (rather than running a paced time-trial), oddly enough, because I can't see any one of these men sacrificing themselves by pushing the pace at 35km, when so much is at stake for a win. Then again, Sammy Wanjiru pushed the pace in Beijing with a great deal on the line, and so perhaps the era of the "fearless marathon runner" will see the record fall.
To me, the only chance for a world record is that the half-way mark must be reached in 61:45, and then the pace must be maintained to 35km. That would put them in position to break the record even if they slow down. 35km in 1:42:30 means that the next 5km can be covered in a slow 15 minutes (thanks to cagey running and weather) and they'll still be in position to dip under 2:04 with the last few kilometers bound to be quite quick as the racing drives the pace on."
mzungo.org says: there is a time for world records and there is a time for racing. With such a stacked field, we prefer to see a tactical battle right to the line, sprint finish. Who is losing patience first? Who will move first? Will he regret it? Who will join? Who can afford not to join? Will anyone be able to return towards the end?
If all this leads to a new world record, it would merely be a bonus.
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