KNOWN UNKNOWNS?

Article by Pat Butcher

As one marathon world record holder fails a fitness test, another prepares, once again, to test the limits of his longevity.

There is barely eight months difference in age between Paula Radcliffe, at 35, and Haile Gebrselassie, 36, and they will both inevitably come to the end of their long roads sooner rather than later. But, to evoke the (evil) spirit of Donald Rumsfeld, is that sooner going to be a lot sooner than that later is later? Who knows, as Rummy might say?

Both champions have indicated a desire to run the Olympic marathon in London 2012, almost a contractual obligation, to herself and to the British public in Radcliffe’s case, after the failures in Athens and Beijing; yet little more than the icing on a career cake for Geb, having tasted the fruits of 26 world bests and records in what is already the longest run at the elite level of any athlete in history.

While it is easy to sympathise with Radliffe’s burning desire to get back into action and prove that she is still the best after months of intermittent injury, there is a strong suspicion that her disastrous run in New York last Sunday was motivated more by profit than the competitive instinct.


Even finishing fourth will have netted her more in prize and appearance money than the surprise winner Derartu Tulu. But the revelation that she had a cortisone injection just days before running 42 kilometres raises a doubt about her racing rationale, where before there had never been any doubt, at least not in this quarter.

Nothing wrong with chasing a buck or two (hundred thousand or so). If you are fit? Which is one of the reasons why Geb is running the Standard Chartered Dubai Marathon again, on January 22, 2010. He has twice won the Dubai first prize of $250,000, and if, as he has announced, he is successful in his world record attempt, there will be a bonus of one million greenbacks (not counting appearance fees) to augment his already burgeoning bank balance.

Haile makes no bones about the fact that he is record chasing, and to those who say he has no opposition, he replied last week, “In Berlin (September). They put in Duncan Kibet, who is the fastest marathon runner in the world after me. And I said, ‘let him run’. It just made me concentrate even more to kill him off in 20k”. Kibet dropped out, as the Geb went on to win Berlin for the fourth year in succession.

He has set two world records in Berlin, 2.04.26 in 2007, and the current 2.03.59 in 2008. In the subsequent Dubai races, he was set up to break both of those records, but an overenthusiastic first half ruined his first attempt, in 2008 (he ‘only’ ran 2.04.53, the second fastest in history); and turning into the teeth of a rainstorm at 30k washed out 2009 (2.05.29). So he returns for a third attempt.


“Of all the races I run in the world, the two best courses, for me, are Berlin and Dubai. I think it’s still possible for me to break the world record there, but everything has to be right, and I’m not going to spoil my chances by predicting it. I still can’t believe I didn’t break the world record in 2008. Everything was perfect except the pace for the first half of the race, which was too fast. Last year the rain was bad and I wasn’t feeling one hundred per cent, so to win and prove I could run well in the wet weather was a bonus for me”.

He had a hesitant start to his marathon career when he launched it in 2002, with a third place in London behind the world record of Khalid Khannouchi. Three years later, fast wins in Amsterdam, Berlin and Fukuoka were offset by two more poor runs in London, ninth (”the worst race of my career”) and a failure to finish, which was later discovered to be due to pollen allergies. All that was put behind him later that year, 2007, when he returned to Berlin and ran his first marathon world record. And for his next?

“For the three months leading up to Dubai, I started slowly with a number of long runs. I will then do a month of speed training and by December everything has to be ready. I will do a number of speed “tests,” these are very important to gauge how well I am running and what I still need to do to be absolutely ready for a world record attempt.

“I will do 30-35km maximum road training per day, split into morning and afternoon runs. I will also work in the gym - treadmill, cycling, exercising - for around three hours minimum once a week. By the time I start the Dubai Marathon I will weigh 58kg… by the time I finish, I will weigh 54kg”.

Seems like a nice equation - lose four kilograms, and gain up to 1.5 million bucks!