Friday, April 2, 2010

Are the top Americans ready for Boston? An opinion.

by Toni Reavis for RunnerVille

Coming off the crowning achievement of his career, a win at last year’s ING New York City Marathon, Meb Keflezighi has his sights set on the April 19th Boston Marathon where no American man has been victorious since Greg Meyer in 1983. Meb has made a habit of “first American” achievements, from winning the first medal at an Olympic Marathon in 28 years (1976 to 2004) to becoming the first American to win the New York City Marathon since 1982. Hopes are high that he, or fellow Mammoth Track Clubber Ryan Hall, might nudge Mr. Meyer off his unwanted perch once and for all in Boston this April 19th. The signs, however, are less than promising as we enter race month.

Meb had an almost ideal 2009, beginning with a half-marathon PR and national title in Houston in January and ending with his fourth national championship and another PR at the New York City Marathon. As Dathan Ritzenhein can attest, putting back-to-back flawless years together is very difficult; the body does rebel. 2010 has not started so sweetly for either Dathan – foot injury – or Meb, accept for the birth of his and wife Yordanos’ third daughter Yohana on January 17th.

With less than a month remaining till Boston, Meb finds himself coming off a niggling knee injury that cropped up after he returned to Mammoth Lakes in January following what had been an extended victory tour after his historic New York win. Troubling, too, is that he pulled out of the March 21st New York City Half Marathon, which was to have been his tune up race for Boston. Last year he won his third U.S. Cross Country title as a tune up for London where he ran the first of two marathon PRs in `09.

Of all of one’s foes, time is the most implacable. It cannot be defeated on your schedule, only its own. Meb’s short window of preparation for Boston is the same problem NBA or NFL teams have had coming off Finals or Super Bowl wins. The length of season and victory celebrations shrink the prep time for the following season, and the teams who got knocked out early and are motivated by last season’s loss, are loaded for bear when the new season kicks off.

Ryan Hall had a so-so year by his standards in 2009, racing only five times in twelve months. He showed third in Boston then fourth behind Meb’s win in New York City. That an American would lament a third in Boston and fourth in New York City is testament to the stature Ryan Hall has reached. And those just-off-the-top performances should be just the motivation he needs to pop another of his operatic runs in Boston. Except, in his lone race of 2010, Hall was shadowed early, then whipped late by Canada’s Simon Bairu at the January 17th Rock `n` Roll Arizona Half-Marathon in Phoenix. Ryan’s 64:07 was over two minutes slower than his second half at the 2007 Olympic Trials Marathon in New York’s Central Park. Following the Arizona performance Ryan pulled out of the Mardi Gras Half in New Orleans where he had planned to face Martin Lel and Sammy Wanjiru as the two Kenyan superstars prepped for their own showdown April 25th at the Virgin London Marathon. (Lel whipped Wanjiru easily in New Orleans in a middling 61+ minutes.)

“I just like to train,” Hall told me at the end of February. “If I feel like I can hit a flyer I will go race, but I don’t want to put any pressure on myself.”

We have seen Ryan Hall produce eye-popping performances out of training alone. His American record win at the 2007 Aramco Houston Half Marathon (59:43) came, by his own admission, out of nowhere following a three-month racing lag. Problem is, Ryan has yet to figure out where that magic came from, or how to harness it again. He keeps expecting it to reappear, and everyone knows that it’s just a matter of time before it does. So, in that sense, time is still on his side for Boston.

The same cannot be said for Meb. After his historic win in the ING New York City Marathon last November, Keflezighi embarked on a well-earned victory tour with appearances on David Letterman, Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, then numerous celebrations in his native San Diego and his wife’s home in Florida. With Christmas, New Year’s, and the birth of daughter Yohanas in January, Meb didn’t get back into serious, routine preparation for Boston until the last week in January. Even then, he only totaled 88 miles for the week. Then he came down with that niggling knee injury.

“He has been pressed for time,” confirmed his long-time coach Bob Larsen. “The knee is our biggest concern, because we’ve had to back off some of the training until it gets better.”

But time is running short, and it’s not something you can force or cram in. Remember how Deena Kastor came into last year’s Chicago Marathon. After breaking her foot three miles into the 2008 Beijing Olympic Marathon, Deena ran a solid third at May 2009’s Bay To Breakers 12K in San Francisco. But her foot acted up afterwards, and she didn’t race the N.Y. Mini 10K as planned, instead she jogged it with NYRR Prez Mary Wittenberg (it wasn’t jogging for Mary). In mid-August she returned to the City to take on Paula Radcliffe and Catherine Ndereba in the NYC 1/2 marathon. It was a disaster (by Deena’s standards). On a brutally humid day Paula won in 69:45. Deena was never in the hunt, coming home in seventh place in 1:13:47. And there was the Bank of America Chicago Marathon sitting seven weeks out on the calendar. Deena’s husband Andrew said it wasn’t any lingering foot problems that bothered his wife in New York, but simply a matter of fitness. When she arrived in Chicago, Deena said: “Coming back from that race I hunkered down at home. The last five or six weeks of long runs, tempos have each been faster than the week before, and it has given me confidence.”

Unfortunately, marathon prep is a twelve week course, not a six-week one. On October 11th Deena ran 2:28:50, good for sixth place in the cold of Chicago. Considering she’d run essentially a 1:14 half-marathon seven weeks before, it was about as good as could have been expected. It was her first marathon finish in 18 months, as well. Right now Deena is again hunkered down in Mammoth prepping for the April 25th Virgin London Marathon, and has to be heartened by her 1:09:43, second-place performance in the New York City Half-Marathon March 21st where she went out at 66-minute pace, before being passed by fellow London opponent Mara Yamauchi of Great Britain in the final few kilometers.

Deena’s 2009 Chicago saga mirrors Meb’s 2010 Boston situation fairly well. Can he still ramp it up for Boston? Can Ryan Hall put that 64:07 Rock `n` Roll mess in January behind him without another tune up race? Oh, this sport is full of questions which only a race can answer. But we do have history as our guide, and by that indicator Greg Meyer might yet remain the last American man to win Boston when April 20th comes around.
 
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