London calling: Science of Sport preview

Sammy Wanjiru has raced and beaten every single runner in this field in the last two years. His victory in Beijing's heat in 2008 is regarded by many (including me) as perhaps the greatest marathon ever run, and he followed it up with brilliant, aggressive front-running victories in London and Chicago last year. Last year in London, he ran the 19th mile in 4:25 (2:45/km), typical of what he produces when on form.

However, he has struggled with a back injury since Chicago, and has been handed some pretty big defeats in shorter races since that. It must be pointed out that pre-Chicago, he also didn't come in with a searingly fast half marathon, and the same is true this time - a 61:33 in March. That's almost the same pace as I would expect them to hit halfway in tomorrow, something just a shade under 64 minutes. So hopefully Wanjiru has managed himself and his build-up well and is in top form again. If he is, then the race changes complexion because of his front-running aggression, and you wouldn't bet against him. He is the slight favourite.

The big unknown, as mentioned, is Zersenay Tadese. The fastest half-marathon runner in history, and that was only a month ago, he is destined to be a brilliant marathon runner. Whether he can fulfill this on Sunday remains to be seen. I have concerns over the proximity of his half-marathon record to this race - it was only a month ago and to be in that kind of shape a month out from a marathon, with the need to have been doing marathon specific training in the build-up to that race, may be a problem. He may be slightly over the peak, and if so, would be found out in the final 10km tomorrow. Also, last year was a very disappointing performance - he was almost the first big name to drop off the lead group, just after half-way. But I am sure he will produce a much improved performance, and should be on the podium. The sub-2:04 performance will come in the future.

The other huge challenger is Tsegay Kebede. He finished 2009 with performances of 2:05:20 in London, 2:08:35 in Berlin and 2:05:18 in Fukuoka. That gives him the fastest three-race average in one year in history, and he knows how to get it right in paced big city marathons - successive 2:05s shows this.

Those three make up my likely podium, though I really don't know the order. If I had to guess, I'd go Wanjiru, Kebede, Tadese, but this is on occasion where in half an hour, I might well have changed it around!

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