What to make of the 30th Virgin London Marathon? It might best be examined by comparing it to the Boston Marathon held on April 19. If there's one thing that can concluded from both events, it’s that there is no such thing as a sure thing in the marathon, save the fact that it’s 42,195 meters long. But within that long stretch of macadam, so much can happen even to the best runners that we shouldn’t be surprised by anything anymore.
Clearly, the talent in the running world is so deep and the turnover so rapid that yesterday’s favorite can become an also-ran in a matter of hours. A year ago, Sammy Wanjiru, coming off record runs in the Olympics, Chicago and London, seemed to be the next “great one”--at just 23 years of age, he was positioned to dominate the sport and keep cashing half million-dollar World Marathon Major checks every year for the next half decade. And it wasn’t a question of if he’d lower Haile Gebrselassie’s world record for the distance, but rather when and by how much. Many predicted the answer might even come on the streets of London this past weekend.
Instead, Wanjiru finally proved himself human, dropping out around the 27K mark, when he couldn’t handle a surge that normally would have barely caused him to break a sweat.
Taking Wanjiru’s anticipated spot atop the London podium was another 23-year-old, Ethiopian Tsegaye Kebede. Just one week ago, an even younger Kenyan, 21-year-old Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot, won Boston, shattering the course record in the process. Despite their youth, none of these guys are neophytes, with medals in Olympics and World Championships or victories in other marathons. In comparison, American Ryan Hall is almost a geezer at age 26, and one wonders if he came too late to the marathon dance. Clearly, the days of runners moving to the marathon late in their careers seems to be over, with occurrences like Constantina Dita’s 2008 Olympic victory at age 37 merely the exception proving the rule (Dita, by the way, finished 50th at London this year).
On the women’s side, Wanjiru’s WMM and London counterpart, Irina Mikitenko, had a worse day, barely making it to 15K before dropping out with a shin injury as Russia’s Liliya Shobukhova ran away to 19-second victory.
But aside from individual reputations and predictions being bashed in London, the race itself deserves some second glances and guesses.
In advance of the race start, many called the race the “the greatest marathon ever.” London proved that it’s usually impossible to live up to such hyperbole, and while Kebede’s winning time of 2:05:19 isn’t shabby, it didn’t raise the eyebrows Cheruiyot did running 33 seconds slower on a much tougher Boston course without the aid of pacesetters. Indeed, the week’s events may have done much to shift the balance of power away from London as the preeminent WMM race for fast times and great racing.
Not only was the London men’s race pretty much a solo time trial for the last five miles, but the 10th place time, 2:16:38, was far slower than Boston (2:12:33) as well as Rotterdam (2:11:28) and Paris (2:09:36). In spite of all the appearance money London’s organizers spend--increased by more than $100,000 this year to charter planes in the wake of the Icelandic volcano-induced grounding of European commercial flights--there seems to be less and less guarantee that doing so will produce a compelling race.
London, and to a lesser extent Berlin and Chicago, have painted themselves into this corner of their own making, where fast times are the races’ primary raison d’etre, at least among the elites. Unless there’s a strong competitive storyline as a substitute, nine times out of ten the result will be disappointment. In the past six months, Boston's and New York’s emphasis on pure racing has seemed to emerge as the more robust model, still capable on occasion of producing record performances, whether they’re of the course of personal variety. Perhaps it’s a lesson that the other race directors, as well as the watch-checking Hall, need to learn for the future.
A few other items from London deserve at least cursory examination. First, the decision by race organizers to support British distance running paid some immediate dividends as men from the U.K. took nine of the top 20 spots, led by Andrew Lemoncello's (who’s coached by Greg McMillan in Arizona) eighth-place 2:13:40 debut.
Second, what does Wanjiru’s DNF signify, aside from proving that he’s occasionally human like the rest of us? There had been some talk among those with knowledge of Kenyan running that he had let his success go to his head a bit, hanging around with friends, spending late hours drinking in a karaoke club. True or not, the question is will his performance in London act as a wake-up call to get back to a more disciplined lifestyle and training, or will it signal the initial sputtering of a running supernova, who burned brightly for a few years, before flaming out?
Finally, what to make of Deena Kastor’s 18th-place 2:36:20 performance? “I really felt terrible right from the start,” she said afterward. “I just felt tight and stiff at the beginning of the race and it never shook out.” In spite of her pre-race statement that she came to London because of its reputation as a fast, hammer-from-the-gun race, she was half a minute off the pace by 10K. As soon as she finished the race, message boards were filled with threads saying she was no longer capable of a world-class performance. This ignores her second-place 1:09:43 run at the New York City Half Marathon in March, and while she may no longer be a member of the sub-2:20 club, her London performance should have been at least 10 minutes faster. Everyone is entitled to a bad race now and then, and Kastor did have her arrival in London delayed several days by the volcano, but coming after a 2:28:50 in Chicago last year, there would seem to be added pressure to come through with a strong race in New York this November to be considered a viable contender for her fourth Olympic berth (third in the marathon) in 2012.
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