I polled various and sundry folks on four matters pertaining to Nov. 7′s New York City Marathon: Haile Gebrselassie’s place; Shalane Flanagan’s time; who the first American man will be; and the biggest “surprise” about which after the race they’ll be saying, “I told you so.” Please add your prognostications below.
Bill Rodgers, 4-time Boston and New York City Marathon champ
Geb’s place: maybe 3rd
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:27
First American man: Dathan Ritzenhein
Surprise: no surprises except there are new stars found in every major marathon
Jonathan Beverly, Running Times editor-in-chief
Geb’s place: 2nd
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:24:56
First American man: Meb Keflezighi
Surprise: Goumri will finally win a major
Amby Burfoot, 1968 Boston champ/Runner’s World editor-at-large
Geb’s place: 3rd
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:24:56
First American man: Ritz
Surprise: Haile doesn’t win
Greg Meyer, 1983 Boston Marathon champ
Geb’s place: DNF
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:24:55
First American man: Ritz
Surprise: Shalane competes well and is top 3
Sabrina Grotewold, Running Times Web editor
Geb’s place: 1st
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:26
First American man: Meb
Surprise: Simon Bairu finishes in the top 5
Pete Pftizinger, 2-time Olympic marathoner/co-author of book you should buy several copies of
Geb’s place: 1st
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:28:30
First American man: Meb
Surprise: the unknown Ethiopian who finishes 2nd
Julia Lucas, Oregon Track Club member
Geb’s place: 1st or DNF
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:24
First American man: Dathan
Surprise: Tim Nelson
Peter Gambaccini, author of The New York City Marathon: Twenty-Five Years
Geb’s place: 1st (a safe, cowardly pick which I may not even believe)
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:24:54
First American man: Meb
Surprise: Maybe this isn’t too much of a surprise, but I expect very good things from Simon Bairu. His cross country background, his fast 10K, his obvious maturity and intelligence, Schumacher’s coaching … they all point to a very good debut. Top 5, I’d say, possibly top 3.
Nate Jenkins, 7th, 2008 Olympic marathon trials/blogger supreme
Geb’s place: 2nd
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:26
First American man: Meb, with yet another 2:09–this will be his 7th time under 2;10 (10th time under 2:11)
Surprise: Victor Rothlin–not sure how a non-African who has medaled at the world champs, finished 6th in the Olympics, has PR of 2:07 is flying under the radar but he is. He’ll be top 5 at least.
Jen Van Allen, Runner’s World/24-hour-run ace
Geb’s place: 1st
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:28
First American man: Meb
Surprise: got me there
Greg Crowther, former 100K world champs team member
Geb’s place: 2nd
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:23:25
First American man: Meb
Surprise: A Meb-Geb battle down the stretch will thrill the true fans and confuse everybody else. “Wait — is Meb the little guy or the REALLY little guy?” At least one journalist live-blogging the race will mislead thousands by mistyping the name of the winner. You heard it here first…
Pete Magill, holder of 3 American age-group records
Geb’s place: 1st
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:24:15 or DNF
First American man: Meb
Surprise: a 49-year-old woman will be the first American women’s finisher; Jared (of Subway fame) won’t break 5 hours (5:04:27)
Moi, former winner of Montgomery Burns Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence
Geb’s place: 4th
Shalane Flanagan’s time: 2:26:13
First American man: Meb
Surprise: Simon Bairu debuts in the top 3
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