Taking risks is something that I have often done when racing. It rarely goes well but when it does, it makes every single time I did it and failed worth it.
Compare that to the measured approach of continuously underperforming all your life with slightly above average results.
"High 5, well done, great pacing with that even split."
"Wow, another negative split, great self control."
Nothing disappoints me more than seeing this in other runners year after year until they are too old for greatness and slightly fade away, negative splitting themselves out of focus.
Sure, it's a question of personality but if you can't handle failing in a race that is your hobby, how are you ready to fail when it counts? Sports for me has always been the endeavor where I can test my physical and mental limits without doing any harm. You never know until you try.
This is my last entry before the NYC Marathon race report in a week. After three weeks of illness, I was able to do some kind of test run today. I don't know how long it was (10 miles?) or how fast (too fast for sure - I failed and quit early) but it did tell me that going for sub 2:50 will be a big risk. More likely than not, I won't make it. Failing at a marathon goal can yield "catastrophic" results: a few seconds too fast early on will be slung back at you in packs of minutes.
I could "comfortably" run a sub 3 hour marathon but I just don't have the mentality for it. Bad enough that my brain still is the same that ran 2:33 six years ago. My body sure enough is not. But that doesn't mean I won't take a risk.
Best of luck to all my fellow CPTC racers who join me in taking a risk!
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