By David Monti for universalsports.comNo marathon has been more closely associated with the achievement of fast times than Rotterdam. Of the fastest 10 marathon performances in history, three have occurred in Rotterdam, including two of the top four. The race has played host to three world records, including both the first sub-2:08 marathon (2:07:12, Carlos Lopes of Portugal, 1985) and the first sub-2:07 (2:06:50, Belayneh Dinsamo of Ethiopia, 1988). Tegla Loroupe ran the first-ever sub-2:21 by a woman in Rotterdam in 1998 when she clocked 2:20:47.
Moreover, the two fastest men's times in the world last year came out of Rotterdam, not Berlin or London. In a thrilling sprint finish on the Coolsingel, Duncan Kibet just edged Kenyan compatriot and training partner James Kwambai by six tenths of a second. Both men were given the official time of 2:04:27. Only world record holder Haile Gebrselassie has run faster (2:03:59).
Kwambai leads our list of runners to watch for this year's race. Here is our exclusive handicapping:
MEN
James Kwambai, 27, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:04:27, Rotterdam, 2009
Weighing just 52 kilograms (115 lbs) and standing only 162cm (5' 4") tall, Kwambai is marathon running's Little Big Man. He is so diminutive that only his outstretched arms were photographed at the finish of last year's Rotterdam race because his body was completely blocked by winner Duncan Kibet. Under coach Claudio Beardelli who trains Kwambai in one of Dr. Gabriele Rosa's camps in Eldoret, Kenya, Kwambai has become an exceptional marathoner, and the favorite for victory here. He had his breakthrough performance in Berlin in 2008, finishing second to Haile Gebrselassie and running a world class 2:05:36, some five minutes better than his previous best. His 2:04:27 at Rotterdam last year makes him the third-fastest man in history. Kwambai will try to rebound from a poor performance at the ING New York City Marathon last November when he dropped out with abdominal pain late in the race and had to go to an emergency room. No definitive diagnosis for the pain was found.
Vincent Kipruto, 22, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:05:47, Paris, 2009
Kipruto burst on the scene last year with his upset victory at the Paris Marathon where he joined the sub-2:06 club in only his second attempt at the distance. Kipruto, who was discovered by Dutch manager Jos Hermens, has a decidedly short résumé. He made his international road running debut in the Netherlands in 2007 the day before he turned 20, finishing fifth at a low-key 10-K in 29:21. It would be more than a year later that he would move up to the marathon, running a very solid 2:08:16 in Reims, France. That performance was good enough to earn him an invitation to Paris the following April, but nobody thought he would break the course record in his first attempt at the race. Kipruto proved that his success was not a fluke: he nabbed third place at the Bank of America Chicago Marathon last October in 2:06:08.
Patrick Makau, 25, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:06:14, Rotterdam, 2009
Makau, twice an IAAF World Half-Marathon Championships silver medallist, made his marathon debut in Rotterdam last year. He managed to stay with the lead pack until very late in the race, before he faded slightly to finish fourth in 2:06:14, the #14 time in the world last year. Makau appears to be in good form. Coach and manager Zane Branson has helped Makau overcome knee soreness, which forced him to drop out of the ING New York City Marathon last November, and Makau has regained top form. At last month's Fortis City-Pier-City Half-Marathon at The Hague, Makau won in a very solid 59:51, prevailing in a sprint finish by one second over Ethiopia's Eshetu Wendimu, despite windy and cold conditions.
Bernard Kipyego, 23, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: None (debut)
Kipyego may be making his marathon debut in Rotterdam, but he's got experience where it counts: getting on the podium in top competitions. Kipyego won an individual bronze medal at the 2007 IAAF World Cross Country Championships in 2007 in Mombassa, and last October he moved up to a silver medal at the very competitive IAAF World Half-Marathon Championships in Birmingham, England, edging American Dathan Ritzenhein in the final sprint. His very fast 59:10 half-marathon best indicates career marathon potential for sub-2:05. In his most recent race, the Fortis City-Pier-City Half-Marathon at The Hague, Kipyego ran 1:00:02 for sixth place.
Daniel Rono, 31, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:06:58, Rotterdam, 2008
Rono comes back to Rotterdam for the first time since 2008 where he had the best race of his career, finishing second in 2:06:58. That performance set him up for two excellent runs at the 2008 ING New York City and 2009 Boston Marathons where he finished third and second, respectively. Rono was selected by Athletics Kenya to run the 2009 World Championships Marathon in Berlin, but he never made it to the starting line because of an injury. In fact, Rono hasn't run a race since Boston in April, 2009, not even a "rust buster" this year ahead of Rotterdam. As such, his true fitness is unknown.
Feyisa Lelisa, 20, Ethiopia.
Marathon personal best: 2:08:47, Xiaman, 2010
Lelisa ran his first marathon earlier this year before turning 20, winning the Xiamen Marathon in China. Lelisa ran well on the USA road circuit last year, taking second at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom 10-Mile in a very fast 45:58 and second at the Crescent City Classic 10-K in 28:20.
Robert Kipchumba, 26, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:09:56, Rotterdam, 2009
Kipchumba's excellent performances at shorter distances indicate that he's due to run a much faster marathon than his 2:09:56 personal best indicates. A silver medallist at the IAAF World Road Running Championships in 2006, Kipchumba's 20-K and half-marathon best times of 56:41 and 59:28, respectively, pointing to marathon potential in the 2:05:00 to 2:06:00 range. Like Makau, Kipchumba competed in the Fortis City-Pier-City Half-Marathon at The Hague, clocking 59:58, so he's in good shape. Kipchumba made his marathon debut in Rotterdam last year, and finished a disappointing 14th at last October's Amsterdam Marathon, clocking 2:13:01.
Geoffrey Mutai, 28, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:07:01, Eindhoven, 2009
Mutai is riding high after winning the ultra-fast RAK Half-Marathon in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, last February in 59:43. That was his second sub-60:00 half-marathon, and built on his course record victory at the Eindhoven Marathon last October where he ran 2:07:01. He's not as well-known as the other Kenyans, but has a legitimate chance for a podium finish.
Francis Kiprop, 27, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:07:04, Berlin, 2009
Kiprop ran four marathons in 2009, but only one returned a good result: his second place finish in Berlin in a personal best 2:07:04. In the other three races he ran 2:11:21 in Rome, 2:19:21 in Thessaloníki, Greece; and 2:24:24 in Hualien, China. Kiprop has only run one race this year, a cross country in Eldoret in January where he finished sixth.
Koen Raymaekers, 30, Netherlands.
Marathon personal best: 2:12:59, Amsterdam, 2009
No Dutchman has ever won the Rotterdam Marathon, and Koen Raymaekers won't change that on Sunday. However, he's the top entrant for the race-within-the-race: the Dutch Marathon Championships. Raymaekers ran two successful tune-up races this year, a 10-K in Schoorl last February in 28:51 and a half-marathon last month in 1:02:48.
WOMEN
Zhu Xiaolin, 26, China.
Marathon personal best: 2:23:57, Beijing, 2002
Zhu is China's #2 marathoner behind only Olympic and World Championships medalist Zhou Chunxiu. She is by far the most accomplished woman entered in Rotterdam; a victory by any other women will constitute an upset. At global championships, Zhu has three top-5 finishes, including fourth place finishes at the 2008 Olympic Games and 2007 IAAF World Championships (she also finished 5th at the 2009 World Championships). In commercial marathons she has victories at Xiamen in 2007 and Dalian in 2005. She's broken the 2:30 mark five times, and appears to be in good form: she won a 10-K in Brescia, Italy, and finished second in a half-marathon in Milan last month.
Aberu Kebede Shewaye, Ethiopia.
Marathon personal best: 2:24:26, Dubai, 2010
For Shewaye, Rotterdam will be her second marathon of the year. She ran an excellent 2:24:26 in Dubai last January, good for second place. Although not well known because she is still young, Shewaye won the bronze medal at the 2009 IAAF World Half-Marathon Championships in a very quick 1:07:39. She will be Zhu's top rival in Rotterdam.
Anne Kosgei, 30, Kenya.
Marathon personal best: 2:27:46, Venice, 2009
Kosgei should make the podium in Rotterdam, and has a consistent record, especially in Italian marathons. Kosgei has placed in the top-2 four times in the Venice Marathon, taking second three times and winning once since 2002. She won that race last year in her career best of 2:27:46. Kosgei races very infrequently. The Venice race was her only competition during 2009, and she has yet to race this year, so we can't be sure about her fitness.
Olga Glok, 27, Russia.
Marathon personal best: 2:28:27, Prague, 2009
Glok won last year's Prague Marathon after prerace favorite Shitaye Gemechu went out too fast, and dropped out. That performance qualified her for the IAAF World Championships where she finished 29th. Like many Russian distance runners, Glok seeks refuge from the cold Russian winters in sunny Portugal. She has run two races their this winter and spring, running 74 minutes in two different half-marathons, only so-so times.
Meseret Mengistu, 20, Ethiopia.
Marathon personal best: none (debut)
Mengistu is moving up to the marathon just one month past her 20th birthday. Although she has limited experience, she's got great speed. In her 2009 campaign she won four races, and ran the #10 road 10-K time in the world, 31:32, at the famous Peachtree Road Race in Atlanta where she finished second. In France she won the Reims Half-Marathon last October in 1:09:45; that's equivalent to a 2:26:30 marathon. She could easily make the podium in Rotterdam.
Magdalena Lewy Boulet, 36, United States.
Marathon personal best, 2:30:19, Boston (U.S. Olympic Trials), 2008
Lewy Boulet finished second at the 2008 USA Olympic Trials Marathon after leading most of the race, making her first Olympic team. The mother from Oakland, Calif., was born in Poland and became a U.S. citizen on 9/11/2001. She was the 2009 USA Half-Marathon Champion, and is running in Rotterdam in an attempt to finally get under the 2:30 mark (she's broken 2:32 three times). She has an outside chance of making the podium.
Merel de Knegt, 30, Netherlands.
Marathon personal best, none (debut)
de Knegt is the top Dutchwoman entered, and is hoping to convert her 1:13:10 half-marathon career best she set in the Hague in March into a good marathon performance, and qualify for the Dutch team for this summer's European Championships.
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