A lot of people were impressed when Kara Goucher won the Rock n Roll Chicago Half Marathon last weekend. Me too. Goucher didn't just top the women's standings, she was the first runner to cross the finish line. Period. She beat all the men as well as the women. I can only think of a few other times when this has happened, and never in a race as big as the Chicago Half, which had 11,000+ finishers.
Outstanding for sure.
But I'm even more excited and impressed about Goucher's next race--the World Championships Marathon for Women in Berlin in two weeks. She's going where no other top U.S. female marathoner has gone before. Our top runners typically pay little attention to the World meet. It's not the Olympics, after all, it's too often held in warm weather in midsummer, and it doesn't pay the kinds of fees elite athletes are accustomed to.
Apparently Goucher is ready to overlook these issues. Good for her.
Few top-tier U.S. distance stars have run the WC Marathon in the last 15 years. I can't even think of the last top woman, and I bet you can't name the only U.S. female racer to win a medal in the WC Marathon. (Answer at bottom of page.)
But Goucher is going, she's incredibly fit, and she has a real chance of medaling in the WC Marathon just as she won a surprise bronze in the WC 10,000 two years ago in Osaka, Japan. In fact, I think she has a chance of winning the WC Marathon outright, and I don't often say that about Americans in world-class marathons. Even with her Beijing disappointments (10th in the 10,000; 9th in the 5000), Goucher has run just about as strongly as anyone over a range of distances these last several years. After the Olympics, she stormed back with a third-place 2:25:53 in her marathon debut in New York City last fall, and a strong but slow/tactical third at Boston last April in 2:32:25.
Most marathon observers, myself included, believe that both these performances showed Goucher's marathon talent, but not her ultimate potential. She can run much faster. Indeed, I think she's in about 2:22 shape now, and that could be enough to get the job done in Berlin. The race favorite, Irina Mikitenko, just announced that she wouldn't be starting, and no one will be surprised if we hear the same from world-record-holder Paula Radcliffe. Goucher still faces plenty of competition from the deep squads of Ethiopia, Kenya, Japan and China, but none of the runners from these countries look any more ready than Goucher.
Plus, she's got Alberto Salazar and Nike in her corner. In the last several years, Salazar has proven the power of coaching just a few athletes, and giving them his full attention. He's also a keen student, and a realist. After all, he was racing Henry Rono 25 years ago. He knows that the East Africans have something special going for them, but he also knows when his athletes are ready to tackle the biggest challenges. I'm guessing he's telling Goucher that she's ready.
Goucher has another powerful motivation. It's well known, because she has said so herself, that she and husband Adam Goucher would like to begin a family soon. She was apparently ready after Boston last spring; Alberto talked her into hanging tough through the WC Championships this month. His argument: You've never run a women-only international marathon like the Olympics. You want to have a baby, and you want to run the Olympic Marathon in 2012, but you won't be fully prepared for that race unless you have one championship marathon under your belt. Berlin is a race you should run in 2009.
Then, if things go according to plan, Goucher will get pregnant and have a baby in 2010. She'll run modestly through her pregnancy, and then start building the miles up seriously in 2011. Nike will provide all the altitude chambers and weight-reducing treadmills a runner could want. She'll have 12 to 18 months to get ready for the U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials, and then time to recover and build up for the Olympics.
It's a great plan. I hope it works out according to the script. Goucher is one of our strongest, most talented, and most emotional runners. It would be great for USA running if she can go for the gold in the next Olympics.
And the Berlin World Championships Marathon is an important jumping-off point on the way to London 2012.
mzungo.org says: If Goucher will indeed stick with the leaders until the homestretch, she'll be outrun by an African lady. Proove us wrong, Kara?
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