Imagine 2020. Brett Gotcher retires. Marathon PR: 2:10:36.

by Scott Douglas
Let me preface the following by saying that I like Brett Gotcher. I was fortunate enough to spend some time with him and his McMillan Elite teammates at home in Flagstaff, Ariz. in January 2008, back when perhaps Brett and his coach were the only ones who saw a 2:10 marathon in his near future. I slept on his floor, we went out for sushi, discussed mutual acquaintances, stuff like that.
So while I was mucho excited to see him debut in 2:10:36 at Sunday’s Houston Marathon, I’m also aware of marathon history. It shows that many elites never run much faster, if at all.
Gotcher’s time makes him the fourth-fastest American debutant in history. The fastest was Ryan Hall, who debuted in 2007 at 2:08:23. Since then, he’s run faster once (admittedly a much faster 2:06:17). Alberto Salazar debuted at New York City in 1980 in 2:09:41. The next year he ran 2:08:13 at the race on what was subsequently found to be a short course. So let’s say his best was approximately a minute faster than his debut. Alan Culpepper also debuted in 2:09:41, and that remains the PR of the now-retired Olympian.
It’s easy to find similar stories from non-Americans. John Treacy debuted at, of all places, the 1984 Olympic Marathon. He won silver in 2:09:56 and ended his career with a 2:09:15 best. Evans Rutto won the 2003 Chicago race in 2:05:50 in his debut; despite several rabbited attempts at faster times, that debut mark remains his PR. Ondoro Osoro also won Chicago in his debut, running 2:06:54 in 1998, and he too never ran faster. And so on. For every story like Haile Gebrselassie’s of improvement upon improvement, it’s easy to find examples like Rutto and Treacy.
Why might this be? Why do elites so often top out straight out of the gate while the rest of us can usually count on getting faster with more marathon experience?
For starters, of course, elites are so much more highly trained than most runners. So even if they’re new to marathon training and racing, their basic aerobic systems are already close to fully developed. Improvements for them come more often in fractions of a percentage point. Counter that with someone who goes from 50 to 70 miles per week. It’s no surprise that the latter runner will more often see large improvements.
There’s also the much-discussed theory that elites in their debut marathon are more fully prepared thanks to recent experience at shorter races, in contrast to those who get on the program of focusing everything around their two marathons a year.
Also, despite our tendency to refer to 20somethings like Gotcher (25) and Hall (27) as “kids,” they’re pretty near their peak. When you figure they get only a couple opportunities a year to race a marathon, and when you account for all that can go wrong over the course of racing 26.2 miles, time has a way of getting in the way of the I-can-always-run-faster-next-time outlook.
So Brett Gotcher, carpe the hell out of this diem. You might never run a faster marathon. But you won’t know until you try. Either way, sushi next time is on me.