What chances do you have, really?

Back in the Tundra, fka NYC. I strongly considered staying indoors until the city thaws but not running for 5 days seemed a bad idea. So on day 2 I ventured out in what was on the scale 60 Fahrenheit colder than my runs the last two months. The "feel" was a different of 80 Fahrenheit.

Here is the thing though: while I don't like cold and snow, it's easier to run in. I know I wouldn't get any sympathy from you (and I shouldn't) but try running in 90F and report back to me.

Either way, my NYC season opener Coogan's 5k (or whatever they call it now) is not going to happen to me. Temperature will be around 20F with a feel of likely in the teens. While these are reasonable temperatures to race in, they're not for me right now. With the wait in the cold and racing on cold legs, chances are higher for me to get sick or injured. And I don't feel like either just two weeks before the NYC Half Marathon.

But then again: what chances do you have not to get sick coming from the tropics and diving into a metropolis at the height of illnesses with a son in daycare to top it off?