Is Fam a decent bet to punch his ticket to Berlin at the 5,000?

by Bryan Green for RunnersTribe

Brass. When I think of Anthony Famiglietti, I think of brass. It's partly because he comes to race every day. It's partly because he willingly takes the lead in his races and defies others to outlast him. But now it's also because he's willing to give up the closest thing to a sure thing in favor of challenging himself and forcing himself to rise to another level.

Anthony Famiglietti would have qualified for Berlin in the steeple. It would have taken one uncharacteristically bad performance by him, or three out-of-their-skin performances by the rest of the field to beat him. He also would have been the US's most likely steepler to qualify for the final in Berlin. Therefore his choice not to run the steeplechase completely changes not just the dynamic of two distance races at this USATF Championships, but also our potential for distance success in Berlin.

Whereas the men's steeple now seems to be more wide open than ever, the 5000m appears to be just about locked down. On paper. After all, it's not as though Fam has no chance in the 5000 meters. Heck, he's arguably the favorite.

Fam comes into the meet with the fastest qualifier (run at Mt. SAC this year) and tied for 9th in the US all-time with his PB of 13:11.93. I personally prefer to go by an athlete's 3rd best time, since it tends to more accurately predict an athlete's ability level in a good race. Fam's #3 time is 13:24.47, slower than only Matt Tegenkamp's 13:15.00 and Chris Solinsky's 13:18.41.

Name Qualifying Time Personal Best 3rd Best Time
Anthony Famiglietti 13:17.98 13:11.93 (2007) 13:24.47 (2006)
Matt Tegenkamp 13:22.60 13:04.90 (2006) 13:15.00 (2006)
Chris Solinsky 13:18.41 13:12.24 (2007) 13:18.51 (2008)
Bernard Lagat 13:03.06 12:59.22 (2006) 13:03.06 (2009)

Outside of Teg, Fam has the best credentials in the race. Not even Solinsky can match Fam's resume, though they are pretty much equal at this point, if you ask me. (Reigning World Champ Bernard Lagat has a bye into the event in Berlin, and is opting not to run the 5000 meters this weekend. He's far and away the cream of the US 5000m crop.)

So Fam is still a decent bet to punch his ticket to Berlin this Friday. But the fact that he is willingly putting that qualification at risk says something about Fam the man and Fam the runner. Fam the man is a gambler, willing to put his money on himself even in situations where the odds are lower than he can get elsewhere. Then again, that's how he runs his races, too, so we shouldn't have been surprised.

As for Fam the runner, he isn't willing to be pigeon-holed as a "steepler." He stated early this year that he wanted to focus on the 5000 and 10000 meters, even going so far as to talk about possible ARs in those events. But it's one thing to run fast times in invitationals and then stick with your specialty in the championships. It's quite another to walk into the championships and compete in your "off-events."

I expect Fam to qualify for Berlin in the 5000 meters. I think he'll go out hard and push the pace, slowly wearing down the majority of the competition. I think Solinsky or Teg or maybe both will sit on him and kick past him, but he might be able to hold off one or both of them. Compared to the steeple, though, there's a much higher probability that someone will rise to the occasion in this race and take away that 3rd spot from him. Win or lose, qualify or not, his choice should be an example to young runners who worry about losing more than challenging themselves to grow and develop as runners.

Should he qualify for the 5000m in Berlin, he'll likely not win a gold or a silver or a bronze. But it won't matter, because he's already got brass.